نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The stock market's performance is widely recognized as a key indicator of a nation's economic health. Similarly, the real estate market, representing a substantial portion of national wealth, plays a critical role in the overall economy. This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships between the real estate and stock markets within an oil-exporting economy, specifically the Islamic Republic of Iran, over the period 1991-2022. Employing both linear (Autoregressive Distributed Lag, ARDL) and nonlinear (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag, NARDL) models, the research analyzes the reciprocal effects of these markets through the wealth and credit transmission mechanisms. Additionally, the study examines the influence of macroeconomic factors, including inflation rate, money supply, oil prices, bank credit, and foreign reserves, on real estate prices. The empirical findings reveal a nuanced relationship between real estate prices and the stock index. While no statistically significant short-run relationship is observed, a long-run wealth effect is evident, wherein an increase in the stock index leads to a corresponding increase in real estate prices. Furthermore, asymmetric effects are identified, with positive and negative shocks in real estate prices exerting positive and negative impacts on the stock index, respectively. Regarding macroeconomic determinants, inflation and money supply demonstrate a significant positive impact on real estate prices. Foreign reserves exhibit a negative short-run effect but a positive long-run effect. Oil prices show a positive short-run impact on housing prices, but this effect is not statistically significant in the long run. These results suggest that enhancing stock market performance can serve as a long-term catalyst for the real estate market.
کلیدواژهها English