State-owned enterprises may transmit financial risks to the public budget through lower government revenues, financial support, triggered guarantees, and the need to maintain essential services. This study develops an early-warning framework for Iran’s non-financial state-owned enterprises and provides preliminary descriptive evidence motivating its use. The analysis draws on official documents and international fiscal-risk frameworks, compares the numbers of enterprises classified as loss-making in approved budgets with those in selected performance reports for fiscal years 1401–1403 (2022/23–2024/25), and matches 38 firm-year observations from published lists of profitable and loss-making entities for 1401 and 1402. The budget-based counts are 25, 17, and 15, compared with 156, 134, and 139 in the selected performance sources. The ratio of summed budget-based counts to summed reported counts is 13.3 percent; differences in reporting periods and coverage preclude interpreting this ratio as a firm-level detection rate. Seven of the ten entities on the 1401 loss list reappear in the 1402 list, yielding a membership persistence rate of 70 percent. The proposed framework separately evaluates enterprise financial vulnerability, government fiscal exposure, and information and governance risk, while distinguishing commercial losses from uncompensated public-service obligations. It links risk signals to budget decisions, guarantees, restructuring, and stress tests. The findings motivate risk-based monitoring rather than establish predictive validity; full validation requires matched firm-level data and verifiable publication dates.